ANN EXCLUSIVE | The Reliability Of Polling

 Written by RooZaIsBased
Australian News Network Director

Over the past week, multiple media outlets have published their 'polls' in regards to a number of issues including approval ratings and voting intentions. Polls have a record of being incorrect, but how incorrect can they be in AU? 

Lets first analyse the inconsistency of polling in AU. A poll conducted by Ausstats and Smith News were realeased on the same day. One had a polling sample of 41 whilst the other had a polling sample of 36. Despite being published simultaneously and having close voting samples, the two polls came back with significantly different results:

Ausstats (41 Voters) (Compared to General Election)
LNP: 46.34% (+9.04%) (14 Seats Projected)
CONS: 34.14% (-6.26%) (10 Seats Projected)
ALP: 4.88% (-7.52%) (2 Seat Projected)
AUP: 14.63% (+4.73%) (4 Seats Projected)

Analysis: Ausstats continues to provide diversified results in regards to their professional polling. This poll shows a, whilst possibly innacurate, realistic and reasonable polling result of the beliefs of active AU players as of right now. The drop for the Conservatives is an often seen result from incumbent governments, and the rise in LNP support from the General Election can be attributed too their ability to remain an active opposition. The ALP has dropped significantly, however little mainstream support for the party remained, with majority of its voting base being inactive. The Unity Party continues to poll well in polls, however suffers considerable swings against them in General Elections due to the lack of the 'inactive vote' that parties such as the ALP benefit from.


Smiths News Australia (36 Voters) (Compared to General Election)
LNP: 61.11% (+23.8%) (18 Seats Projected)
CONS: 25% (-15.4%) (7 Seats Projected)
ALP: 5.55% (-6.85%) (2 Seat Projected)
AUP: 11.11% (+1.21%) (3 Seats Projected)

Analysis: This predominantly Liberal influenced media source projected huge unforseen swings for the LNP of upwards of 20% based off the 36 poll votes casted. Despite being released only hours after the Ausstats poll and being closed at the same time, this poll seems to indicate a completely different result to what the aforementioned poll does. This is an example of how much polling in AU can be trusted.


Why can't it be trusted? Parties employ the tactic of 'inactive votes', whereas DM campaigns and other advertising campaigns are launched to bring in inactive voters, unaware of lore and policies to vote for them, a technique used significantly by the Labor Party verse Conorra in the latest election of 2022. Because of this, only polls endorsed by all parties and widely participated in like Ausstats give any type of clear indication, an indication which is also distorted by the fact of 'inactive votes', or votes cast at an election but never cast during the pre-polls or voting intention polls.

So whilst polls may be innacurate, what they can do is indicate to news sources multiple pieces of statistics, such as general activity of party bases etc. 

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